Fall is right around the corner. That means pumpkin spice everything, that annual trip to the pumpkin patch with your significant other for that perfect social media post while she holds a pumpkin, and most importantly… FOOTBALL. Football is everything great about America. Wings, booze, and gambling (all good in moderation) will be the weekend rituals for many of us until the Super Bowl. I am not here to debate if Papa Johns or Dominos is better for the catering, or if Bud Light or Coors Light should be stocked for the boys. I’m here to help you finally get above 25% on your bets this football season.
Every week the Fresh Off the Clock team will bring you both NCAA and NFL single-game locks as well as 3 and 5-leg parlays. We will also provide the Fade Game of the Week which is to be gambled on at your own risk (insert creepy noise). Since the NFL is in its break between the preseason and regular season, we are only providing NCAA picks this week.
Single Game Lock: LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State; Odds: -115
Florida State is coming off its first 10-win season since 2016 and has a cast of new and returning players. QB Jordan Davis and edge Jared Verse lead the Seminoles who were 16th in PPG and 21st in opponents PPG. I expect the Noles to take a step forward from that this year, but this may be the toughest test they will face all year and we will learn quickly if this is just another overrated Florida State team or a team that is a contender out of the ACC.
This game features an LSU team that lost to FSU on a blocked extra point last year. LSU is the defending SEC West champs but will be without star Maason Smith who will be serving a one-game suspension for pre-NIL “improper benefits”. Look for Brian Kelly to have the Tigers fired up for their revenge.
This game is almost as close as it gets, but LSU wins by at least a field goal.
3 Leg Parlay: Kent State (+36.5); Alabama (-39.5); Washington vs. Boise State (Over 58.5); Odds: +581
36.5 points is a large spread for a team that has Purdue transfer Michael Alaimo and Kansas transfer Ky Thomas. QB Michael Alaimo only attempted 18 passes at Purdue but comes from a Big Ten school where competition is naturally higher than what either of these teams are accustomed to. RB Xavier Williams is back after missing 2022, he also ran for over 800 yards in 2021. Kent State can move the ball quickly, but time of possession and a solid run game should keep them within 5 touchdowns of the Golden Knights.
Alabama is playing Middle Tennessee State. That’s all that needs to be said.
Washington has QB Michael Pennix returning, a top-10 Heisman candidate, and an absolute showstopper. The Huskies finished 7th for PPG last year at 39.7. Boise State and Sophomore All-American (Freshman team) QB Taylen Green was 58th at 29.5 PPG. Simple math tells us that these teams should easily hit the over.
5 Leg Parlay: Miami FL vs. Miami OH (Over 45.5); Iowa vs. Utah St (Under 45); Temple ML vs. Akron; Houston ML vs. UTSA; NC State (-14.5); Odds: +1577
Fade of the Week: UNC vs. South Carolina
I should have caution tape all around this one. Is Drake Maye the guy? What about Spencer Rattler? A battle of the Carolinas in Charlotte will be a fun one to watch, but with a spread of 2.5 and an over of 64.5, I want to enjoy this game for what college football is all about. The atmosphere and heart of two schools that could exceed expectations rather than stressing over a bet that is as close to a coin toss as it gets.
