Next Up: The NFL’s Most Likely First-Time MVP in 2025

By Cody Hatfield

June 1, 2025

With the 2025 NFL season on the horizon, the MVP conversation is already heating up—and this time, the spotlight isn’t just on the usual suspects like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Instead, a crop of rising stars and seasoned veterans who’ve never held the league’s most prestigious individual award are making strong cases to break through. From electric young quarterbacks to resurgent running backs, here’s a look at the top contenders most likely to claim their first NFL MVP title.

1. Jayden Daniels – QB, Washington Commanders

MVP Odds: +1100

Jayden Daniels took the NFL by storm last season, showcasing poise and playmaking far beyond his rookie status. Over a four-game win streak, Daniels completed an eye-popping 77.1% of his passes—outpacing MVP winners like Mahomes and Jackson in efficiency. With the Commanders rallying around their new franchise quarterback and the NFC East wide open, Daniels could become the first rookie MVP since Jim Brown in 1957.

“He’s playing with a level of confidence that’s rare for a first-year QB,” said one NFC scout. “If he keeps it up, he’s not just a Rookie of the Year candidate—he’s an MVP threat.”

2. C.J. Stroud – QB, Houston Texans

MVP Odds: +2200

C.J. Stroud’s 2023 season was no fluke. With an improved supporting cast that now includes Stefon Diggs, the Texans’ offense is built to take another leap. Stroud’s accuracy, decision-making, and calm under pressure have already drawn praise from across the league. If Houston becomes a top seed in the AFC, Stroud could easily be front and center in MVP talks.

“Stroud’s got the team, the numbers, and now the national spotlight,” noted NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky. “He’s for real.”

3. Jared Goff – QB, Detroit Lions

MVP Odds: +2500

Jared Goff’s career resurgence in Detroit has been one of the league’s most compelling stories. After leading the Lions to their first division title in 30 years and a near Super Bowl berth, Goff is finally getting the recognition he deserves. With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning and a loaded offense, Goff could be poised for an MVP-level season.

“He’s the leader of a team that’s not sneaking up on anyone anymore,” said former NFL QB Kurt Warner. “And that’s when MVP campaigns are built.”

4. Saquon Barkley – RB, Philadelphia Eagles

MVP Odds: +5000

Barkley turned back the clock in Week 11 of last season, torching the Rams for 302 total yards and two touchdowns in one of the best performances by a running back in years. Now with the Eagles, he’s on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. If Barkley carries Philadelphia deep into the playoffs while putting up gaudy numbers, voters may finally reward a running back.

“He’s doing it all—rushing, receiving, blocking—and doing it at a historic pace,” said an NFC East coach anonymously. “It’s hard not to notice.”

5. Tyreek Hill – WR, Miami Dolphins

MVP Odds: +10000

Tyreek Hill came dangerously close to the elusive 2,000-yard mark in 2023 before a late-season injury derailed his campaign. If he can stay healthy and continue his explosive play, Hill could make history as the first wide receiver to win the MVP award.

“We’ve never seen anyone stretch the field like him—ever,” said Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “If he gets to 2,000, how do you not consider him?”

Final Prediction: Jayden Daniels Makes History

While Stroud and Goff have the experience and systems in place to make deep playoff runs, Jayden Daniels is the most intriguing name on this list. His early command of the offense, dazzling efficiency, and the narrative of a rookie lifting a long-suffering franchise make him the most likely candidate to claim his first MVP award in 2025.

If Daniels continues to shine, history may soon repeat itself—67 years after Jim Brown’s legendary rookie MVP campaign.

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